Incubus 7-11-07 Greek Theater




Its Time To Start A Web Company

Over the last few weeks I have been coming up with every idea I can for a web company. Between Ian's mad coding skillz and my design and creativity I KNOW we can make something amazing. The first website we ever made won an award for the best in its industry (www.aitginc.com). I am definitely going to create some kind of community based site but I have no idea what (you can tell how far I am from making my decision!). There are a few things that i'm keeping in mind while coming up with ideas.

1) It needs to be remarkable! This means that it must be an idea that people will make remarks about. Whether its in their blog or just talking to their friends in order for the idea to spread it needs to be remarkable.

2) I want to try to use people's egos to help spread the idea. That sounds evil but really its not. I need people to WANT to spread the word about this site. What better way than to use their egos to help? example: Check out what I did!!!

3) I want to promote productivity. I don't want a bunch of lazy ass users. People who use this site will be driven and motivated which will make the community an active environment.

4) I cant be afraid to team up with other web companies to get it done. For example, If part of the site involved adding pictures, there is no reason for me to host and manage them. We could use flickr, picasa etc.

5) It has got to be something that im interested in. I watched a panel discussion the other day and one of the GUYS was starting a community for single mothers. I doubt he is interested in that and I cant imagine it succeeding for just that very reason.

6) It needs to be able to make money. Not to be a greedy bastard (which I am), but if I am going to put a lot of time and energy into this it would be nice to come up with an idea that can be profitable. The more revenue streams the better. I can use ads, payed services, sell products or even build a site specifically to become takeover bait.

7) Some part of the company has to involve something super innovative. I could always rip off some other site and make a "Me Too", but the site has to be known as the first website that let its users _________.

If you have any ideas for a company that meets all these criteria let me know. I am recording all of our ideas at www.splitp.com. It is password protected so if you want to get involved or even just tell me why all our ideas suck, drop me an email and I will give you access to the site.



NYX Gets An Upgrade

NYX got an upgrade from Lehman Brothers today boosting their rating from Overweight to Equal Weight. They have a $95 price target on the stock. I bought in at 75 and it closed at 82. I still think this stock has great potential when you consider the runs all the other exchanges have had this year and last.

Investors were worried that they would rush out and make another aquisition the second the Euronext deal was done. Obviously this did not happen. That is why the stock has been dragging. If it gets to 85 tomorrow I will probably sell and buy some back lower.



Trimming Down

I leave for my dads wedding in Vegas today. This seems like a good excuse to trim some of my holdings. The market is running nicely and it seems lika a good time to get out of my short positions.
AAPL ran over expectations over the iPhone selling record amounts.
I was officially WRONG on that one and I will never bet against apple again... its just to risky.
I bought AAPL back at $131.94.

I noticed HOKU starting to run so I bought that back as well @ $11.00.
It eventually flew to 12.33 so i'm sure glad I acted quickly. Too bad I didnt short again at those levels because it closed at $11.42. I will most likely trade this stock again. I like how liquid and volatile it is.

JSDA, which I have been down on ever since I bought in, is exploding today on no news. I love this stock and I think it will go much higher, but I also think I can buy back in at lower levels. I sold today at $18.25 booking a nice 2.25 a share profit. I will definitely pick up some more when the price is right.

As for the rest of my portfolio (NYX, MAG, RACK) I am not seeing much action. NYX is popping today and I have finally gone into the green on that one. It is hated so much it is nice to see it finally going up. RACK has not moved much at all. If we get some news and a nice pop, I will probably dump it.





HOKU

Hoku has gone up 300% in the last three weeks. It has gone from having a market cap of $75 million to being worth $178 million. So can a company grow at 100% a week forever. No Way! This is a major hype deal and I am going to short the hell out of it. I hopped in today Short @ $10.95.



NYX- Plan

NYX has been getting beat down for some time. Competition among the exchanges is getting fierce. This is one of Cramers Top growth picks for the year and I have no problem trading based on that alone. He believes that Euronext should be $100 a share if it was trading by itself. With NYX's acquisition or Euronext this thing should be MUCH higher.
Today NYX announced their earnings will be released Aug. 2 and I think they will be amazing. Since this stock has gotten pummelled for so long I think it might trade up going into the earnings. I will decide whether I want to hang on or sell into the earnings based on the action I see going in to it.



My Core Rule

My core rule has always been to buy stocks that are going up and sell ones that are going down. Makes sense right??? If it was only that easy!! I find myself right now tearing that rule to shreads. Lets look at the positions I have.

AAPL Short @ 120 (up 70% in 6 months)
HOKU Short @ 10.95 (up 100% in 2 weeks)
JSDA Long @ 16.00 (down 55% in 3 months)
RACK Long @ 13.00 (down 66% in 6 months)
NYX Long @ 74.25 (down 33% in 6 months)

I am beginning to see a pattern here. Every stock that I am long is trending down and every stock I am short is trending up. Who am I to predict when a stock is going to change directions? Sure, HOKU is up 100% in 2 weeks (i feel pretty good about my positions here), that is seriously pushing it. I guess if half of these picks do what I expect them to I will do fine.

Should I keep pretending to trade by my core rule? It does make sense right? Or do I need to reexamine it?





Seth Godin Is A Marketing Genious




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