Short VMW earnings
My short position in VMW went very well. I knew this company couldn't hold at the levels mentioned in the previous post. While the stock drifted against me soon after I sold short, their earnings announcement on Monday crushed it. They met analysts expectations, so what went wrong(right! for me)?

This was a classic example of of the market posting a premium on a star IPO. Every investor is looking for the next big IPO. When they set their estimates, what they really are doing is picking a number that they want the company to BEAT. When young companies can't BEAT their estimates, then the market punishes them.

VMW TradeI sold short at $77.55 on Thursday because VMW had tested it's support 3 times with no signs of a bounce. When I noticed earnings were being announced I was skeptical to hold such a large position because you never know what will happen after an announcement. I bought back half of my position 30 minutes before the close on Monday (earnings day) at $78.89.

After earnings were announced VMW started dropping like a rock in after hours. I watched it bounce off of $62 and then recover to the $67 area once the conference call started. When it went back down to $62.50 I covered the rest of my position in after hours.

Every time I have ever made a move in after hours I have regretted it (except for once with AAPL but that was a buy). It was no different here. I think I played this trade well but should have waited until market open Tuesday to cover. The stock opened @ $58.27 and went as low as $53.57 where it found support. If I would have stuck to my plan I would have covered in the low $50s. Either way I am glad I covered and happy with the trade.

First Half of position:
Bought @ 77.55 sold @ 78.89 = -1.72%

Second Half of position:
Bought @ 77.55 sold @ 62.50 = +19.4%

Success...
30 Jan 2008


Choosing a dog
During a bear market, the only way to make money is to pick a dog, and sell it short. I have been mostly cash for some time now and I need to get it working for me.

When I have no idea which direction the market is going (like the last few weeks) I trade based on what the market is doing that day. On 12/11/07 I sold CROX short at $44.60 and bought it back at $42.70.

On 1/7/08 I sold CROX short first thing in the morning at $32 and have been holding ever since.

The market has been taking an absolute BEATING for the last month or so. The dow is down almost 3000 points and fear of recession is looming. I need to start finding stocks that I want to be short through this. I am looking for high flying fads. Expecially ones where the chart points to a potential gap down.

My first find so far is VMW. I loved the stock when it IPO'd. I think it it had too large a run and could break down if the market crumbles. There is some serious support at 71 which has been tested 3 times now. I think next time it tests the 71 level it will bust through. I went short this morning at $77.55 and will put a stop at about $80. I will look to buy back at its IPO price around $50 (if I can wait that long).
23 Jan 2008


It's going to be bloody


I literally heard sirens outside 10 minutes after the market opened today.
22 Jan 2008


Money is debt
Woah... I never understood how money worked. This guy does an amazing job of explaining the history of money.



Now I see how/why our economy is so fuXed. We went from have money which was a true asset (because it was backed by gold) to money that is true debt (mortgages and credit cards). Why are banks the only institution that can "create" money? Once a new banking model is developed, it will revolutionize everything. I cant wait to invest in it.
30 Dec 2007




Tripp'n on LDK
It may not be a drug, but I must have been hallucinating. This trade was one my my most memorable stock market experiences. Mistakes I will never make again, and and decisions I will never forget. What would you do if you went ALL IN on a stock that was destined for hell?
12 Dec 2007


Changing Your Mind - Taking Profits
After posting my posit in on FMCN on Cake Financial yesterday and claiming to have a "long term focus", I woke up this morning to a pleasant surprise. FMCN is up 15% at $56 on news that their internal audit is complete and coverage was initiated by Susquehana Capital at "Positive" (whatever that means, I am seriously not a big fan of analysts).

"The Audit Committee concluded that nothing has come to its attention."
This had been a major drag on FMCN's stock and now it has a free ticket to new highs.

It is my belief that having the ability to change your mind on a dime is an extremely important asset in the world of trading. This might be the only place where shooting first and asking questions later is required.

I sold my position in FMCN 10 minutes ago @ $56, FMCN's fresh all time high. Sure I believe it is going higher, but not before taking a breather. I am up 35% in a 3 short months, any more and I am just being way too greedy.

I am going to look to get back in at the $50 level.
25 Sep 2007


CROX- Stopped Out
I got stopped out on CROX today at $59. I think this was a combination of bad timing, and bad timing =) The market has been exploding ever since the rate cut and is taking all manufacturers and retailers with it.
Maybe I am a little too early? CROX will fall, maybe I wait till after the holidays.
Maybe some lucky kids will get ugly rubber shoes in their stocking for Christmas.

eDit- CROX flew to 60.73 within 3 minutes of getting stopped out at 59. Thank goodneSS for stoPs.
24 Sep 2007




Cake Financial Knows Whats Up
Thanks to the Techcrunch 40 I was introduced to a new company today called Cake Financial. I had this idea for a while but didn't have the time or $ to get it going. They did an amazing job & I think this is going to be a huge hit for investors.

Basically it is community investing. See what community members are buying, selling, saying. You can see how the community is doing as a whole via the Cakedex and learn from the traders who are making the most money.

The most impressive feature is the ability to import your investing account directly from your broker. It was painless and smooth. Without this feature, this idea wouldn't work. People would try to manipulate the system. But since every trade is pulled directly from your account, there is no tampering with your activity.

Mad Props to the Cake guys, they did it right.

One more thing...
Check it out! I was the top performer for the last 30 days on their launch day. sweeeeet.
19 Sep 2007


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