Once again I talk up a storm about what im going to do and then don't follow through. I guess thats the point of this blog, I can post my analysis and then get fucking pissed when I dont do what I said I would. At least I tried this time though.
On September 19 2007 I posted my feelings on CROX and how I felt it was a steaming pile of shit. To quote it exactly I said "These things are a fad and this stock is going to die." I took a big short position that day @ $55 but got stopped out 5 days later at $59.
In hindsight I am glad I set such a close stop because over the next month and a half CROX flew to the $75 mark. Had I not put the stop I would have probably bought back the shares at a much higher price. The day I got stopped out I posted my analysis of the situation. "I got stopped out on CROX today at $59. I think this was a combination of bad timing, and bad timing =). Maybe I am a little too early? CROX will fall, maybe I wait till after the holidays."
When earnings came around I wasn't paying attention and completely missed the bout. CROX dropped from 75.21 to 33.75 in one week. Boy did that get my attention. I revisited CROX for a small day-trade on Dec. 11 and made a little $. On Jan 23 I posted about Choosing A Dog and referred again back to CROX again when I was analyzing VMW for a potential short (I wasnt able to stick with that one either, and it would have been a $ maker).
Today was CROX earnings announcement and once again it is getting PWNED. The stock I first shorted at $55 is now down at $10.50 over the course of 6 months and I just watched it happen from the sidelines.
A couple times a year a stock presents itself and I KNOW without a doubt which direction it is going. CROX was one of those stocks. I have had many theories on how to play the market and one of them goes like this: Wait for the opportunities that you are 100% sure of, and keep a lot of cash on hand so you are prepared when it presents itself.
If I could do this I would be making a ton more money and be trading A LOT less. Patience is the key to investing. Every time a situation like CROX happens, I get a little closer to fully realizing this. Some day I might just get the courage to stick to my plan.
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Under Armour announced their earnings last night and they were not to impressive. Plus they lowered guidance for the rest of the year. For this quarter, they beat on revenues but were down on net income "due to increased marketing expenses". I think it is so funny that they blame their earnings miss on marketing, one of the few aspects of business that the company has complete and absolute control over. This made me chuckle so I mentioned it to 
Sometimes its nice to get validation that you made the right decisions. The portfolio I put together the other day is acting beautifully today. Now I know not to expect this every day, but at least I know I am going down the right path with the 
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