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Wimax, The Speculation Starts Here
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 I remember talking about WiMax like 4 years ago, "It is like giant wireless routers setup like cell towers all over the city". I know this sounds crazy, but that is basically what WiMax is. I have no idea what has taken so long for this technology to get rolled out, Intel has apparently been finished developing it for years. Intel even assisted the FCC and FEMA by rolling our WiMax in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. The lagging issue aside, it looks like WiMax is finally getting the funding it needs for the big national rollout. On May 6 Intel ($1 bil), Time Warner($550 mil), Comcast ($1 bil) and Google ($500 mil) announced that they will invest more than $3 Billion in ClearWire(CLWR), an up and coming Wimax provider. Sprint announced a couple years ago that they were going to build out a giant WiMax infrastructure to try and corner the market. Now that WiMax is finally getting the press it deserves, I saw we start speculating. But first, lets answer the one question everyone is asking, "Who is Clearwire?".
 ClearWire was started by a telecommunications industry pioneer by the name of Craig O. McCaw. McCaw outsmarted the giant telco giants back during the babybell days by purchasing up millions of local FCC licenses that the telcos didn't know they would eventually need. He later sold his company to AT&T for $11.5 billion and now he's at it again. This guy sees the potential in WiMax that he once saw in these FCC licenses. He knows the telco industry like the back of his hand and now he has Intel, Google and major cable operators giving him billions of dollars.
While he has convinced the tech heavyweights, he has yet to convince investors. Shares of ClearWire had a monster IPO back in March of '07 and have been sliding ever since. The nice pop CLWR got this week from the big funding announcement got shredded 10% today by a Citi analyst who downgraded the stock from "hold" to "sell". Sounds fishy too me. Lets see, Google, Intel, Time Warner, Comcast and this McCaw guy believe in WiMax so much that they invest billions, some Citi analyst on the other hand hates it. Who do you believe.
If you are like me, you believe the tech heavyweights of the world over the Citi guy. I see ClearWire as a great way to play the future of the internet. Let's go ahead and speculate, you know... the fun stuff:
1) Lets start by saying that WiMax technology is 5, or even 10X faster than anything currently available by AT&T & Verizon as far as wireless connectivity (I have actually heard that this is true).
2) Then let's go ahead and say that part of the reason Apple switched to Intel chips a few years ago had something to do with knowing all about WiMax. Wasn't this about the time that Mr. Jobs started working on his first iPhone?
3) Of course Google is investing $500 million in this company right about the same time they are releasing their new android platform. But Google invests in everything, and didn't they spend twice that for youtube?
4) McCaw has already convinced AT&T to buy one of his companies back in the day. If this gains traction, I could see that happening again.
5) Comcast and Time Warner want in this deal in a big way hu? My home phone, tv, and internet is already provided by Time Warner, why not my cell phone too?
There are only two pure plays if you want to try and invest in WiMax. The first and most obvious is ClearWire (CLWR). The stock is down big and I think this is a good place to start building a position. The next is a little known penny stock that recently hit the radar, AIRN. Apparently they make the WiMax hardware needed to roll out these big ol networks. Intel, Google, Time Warner & Comcast are all too big for any change in the WiMax area to make any real difference in their stock price. But this doesn't stop us from speculating. Internet EVERYWHERE has been a long time in the making, is it finally here? What else will come along with it? There is surely a ton more room to speculate in the comments =) |
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This site is not just a place for me to speak my mind, my goal is for these posts to be a catalyst for conversation. If I have stimulated some thoughts/ideas please be sure to contribute below. Dont be shy =)
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