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Sometimes you just KNOW
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Once again I talk up a storm about what im going to do and then don't follow through. I guess thats the point of this blog, I can post my analysis and then get fucking pissed when I dont do what I said I would. At least I tried this time though.
On September 19 2007 I posted my feelings on CROX and how I felt it was a steaming pile of shit. To quote it exactly I said "These things are a fad and this stock is going to die." I took a big short position that day @ $55 but got stopped out 5 days later at $59.
In hindsight I am glad I set such a close stop because over the next month and a half CROX flew to the $75 mark. Had I not put the stop I would have probably bought back the shares at a much higher price. The day I got stopped out I posted my analysis of the situation. "I got stopped out on CROX today at $59. I think this was a combination of bad timing, and bad timing =). Maybe I am a little too early? CROX will fall, maybe I wait till after the holidays."
When earnings came around I wasn't paying attention and completely missed the bout. CROX dropped from 75.21 to 33.75 in one week. Boy did that get my attention. I revisited CROX for a small day-trade on Dec. 11 and made a little $. On Jan 23 I posted about Choosing A Dog and referred again back to CROX again when I was analyzing VMW for a potential short (I wasnt able to stick with that one either, and it would have been a $ maker).
Today was CROX earnings announcement and once again it is getting PWNED. The stock I first shorted at $55 is now down at $10.50 over the course of 6 months and I just watched it happen from the sidelines.
A couple times a year a stock presents itself and I KNOW without a doubt which direction it is going. CROX was one of those stocks. I have had many theories on how to play the market and one of them goes like this: Wait for the opportunities that you are 100% sure of, and keep a lot of cash on hand so you are prepared when it presents itself.
If I could do this I would be making a ton more money and be trading A LOT less. Patience is the key to investing. Every time a situation like CROX happens, I get a little closer to fully realizing this. Some day I might just get the courage to stick to my plan.
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This site is not just a place for me to speak my mind, my goal is for these posts to be a catalyst for conversation. If I have stimulated some thoughts/ideas please be sure to contribute below. Dont be shy =)
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